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108.44, 104.91, 95.39, 94.54, 93.29, 97.44, 98.7, 98.91, 97.47, 97.72, 98.43, 102.5, 102.9, 103.08, 105.86, 107.49, 100.86, 100.66, 99.49, 98.95, 96.56, 96.95, 97.49, 97.22, 94.9, 95.38, 94.01, 93.56, 95.18, 99.14, 101.08, 98.25, 94.45, 96.2, 89.46, 89.27, 89.41, 90.76, 88.49, 90.62, 91.88, 90.45 ], "basket_vs_spy": { "compute": 14.6, "hyperscale": -5.0, "power": -11.0, "build_cool": -15.9, "network": 16.1, "neocloud": -12.1 } }, "signals": [ { "date": "2026-09-24", "sev": "med", "note": "ORCL moved -5.0% on the day" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "sev": "med", "note": "VRT moved -3.3% on the day" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "sev": "med", "note": "NBIS moved +7.7% on the day" } ], "calendar": [ { "date": "2026-09-09", "name": "SpaceX (SPCX, incl. xAI) lockup tranche: day 90 (+affiliate release Sep 10)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Confirmed real: SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp, EDGAR CIK 1181412) filed a 424B4 prospectus dated 2026-06-11/filed 2026-06-12 and IPO'd on Nasdaq as SPCX (~$1.25-1.75T valuation per press coverage); post-merger the combined entity has been branded 'SpaceXAI' in some coverage (rebrand announced July 2026) though SPCX ticker persists. xAI's merger into SpaceX closed Feb 2026. Independently recomputed day-count from the 2026-06-11 prospectus date confirms day 90 = Sep 9, 2026 and day 91 = Sep 10, 2026, matching the original schedule exactly. SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company (Q2 2026) was released Aug 4, 2026, consistent with the note that an initial 911.5M-share tranche released after that first earnings date. Exact share counts (319.0M / 59.1M) not independently re-extracted from the 202MB prospectus (too large to fetch in full) but are internally consistent with the confirmed anchor date.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm", "horizon": "near", "verified": true, "blurb": "319M shares unlock 90 days after the June listing.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-09-16", "name": "FERC large-load show-cause: stakeholder reply comments due (non-abeyance track)", "type": "deadline", "note": "Reconfirmed: FERC's June 18, 2026 Section 206 show-cause orders to six RTOs/ISOs (PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO) set an Aug 17, 2026 response deadline (confirmed via GCN coverage: 'All six US regional grid operators faced a FERC August 17 deadline to justify or rewrite their rules for connecting large loads'), with a 30-day reply-comment window landing Sep 16. Five of six RTOs/ISOs sought delay via the abeyance mechanism (confirmed via Capacity Global, Aug 24, 2026: 'Five of six US grid operators seek delay on FERC's data centre power deadline'), so most substantive activity likely shifts to the Nov 15 abeyance track. Exact Sep 16 date not independently found in a primary FERC document; retained as a estimate per RTO Insider/Orrick reporting.", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-doe-data-center-interconnection/823360/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Stakeholder replies on how RTOs connect large loads.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "name": "Meta Connect 2026 (Sep 23-24)", "type": "event", "note": "Window end. Reconfirmed directly from Meta's official Connect page fetched today: 'September 23-24, 2026' at Meta's Menlo Park, CA campus, with an evening keynote and developer sessions covering VR, wearables, metaverse and AI. No changes or cancellation found.", "url": "https://www.meta.com/blog/connect-2026-save-the-date/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Meta's hardware and AI keynote; watch capex hints.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "name": "OpenAI DevDay 2026 (San Francisco)", "type": "event", "note": "Reconfirmed directly from the official DevDay site fetched today: 'OpenAI DevDay is on September 29, 2026 at Fort Mason in San Francisco.' No changes or cancellation found. Regional 'DevDay Exchanges' follow later in 2026 (undated).", "url": "https://devday.openai.com/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "OpenAI's developer conference; pricing and model launches.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "name": "MU earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Compute & memory", "horizon": "near", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "name": "SK hynix (SKHY) Nasdaq ADS 90-day lockup expiry", "type": "ipo", "note": "Corrected date. Confirmed real via SEC EDGAR (CIK 2120882): SK hynix's 424B4 prospectus was filed 2026-07-10 (not Jul 9 as originally stated), for a ~$26.5B Nasdaq ADS listing (ticker SKHY) that debuted in July 2026 (Bing News confirms an active, trading Nasdaq debut with shares up double digits). A standard 90-day lockup from the confirmed 2026-07-10 filing date computes to Oct 8, 2026 (one day later than the original Oct 7 estimate, which used an assumed Jul 9 prospectus date). No underwriter release notice or news of actual insider sales found to pin the date further; treat Oct 7-8 as the estimated window.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2120882/000119312526299963/d32785d424b4.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "First unlock for SK hynix's US-listed shares.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "name": "APLD earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Neoclouds", "horizon": "near", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "name": "ASML Q3 2026 results (approx.)", "type": "earnings", "note": "Estimate, unchanged. Re-checked ASML's investor relations / financial-calendar pages today; no specific Q3 2026 date is published there yet, and no news source gave an exact date either (only general commentary on Q3 outlook). Oct 14, 2026 remains a third-party-calendar estimate consistent with ASML's usual mid-October Q3 reporting cadence.", "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-results", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "First read on 2027 EUV orders; date is an estimate.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "name": "TSM earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Compute & memory", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "name": "PJM Reliability Backstop Procurement: central auction bid window closes (Sep 30-Oct 21)", "type": "deadline", "note": "Window end. Reconfirmed as a real, active process via multiple RTO Insider / Utility Dive articles found today: 'PJM to Create Large Load Registry, Proposes to Hold Backstop Auction in Oct.' (RTO Insider, Jul 29, 2026) and 'PJM files backstop auction plan at FERC to meet capacity shortfall' (Utility Dive, Aug 3, 2026), tied to FERC Docket ER26-3380 (filed Jul 31, 2026) covering a 6.8 GW shortfall from the 2028/29 BRA. No FERC order on ER26-3380 was found as of today (Sep 3, 2026), consistent with 'still pending.' Note: this backstop process is separate from PJM's normal RPM cycle and does not appear in PJM's standard RPM auction-schedule spreadsheet (which was independently pulled and verified today for the normal BRA/IA items below).", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-backstop-capacity-auction-ferc-data-centers/826792/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "PJM's emergency capacity auction takes bids through Oct 21.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "name": "VRT earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Build & cooling", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "name": "FIX earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Build & cooling", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "name": "SpaceX lockup tranches: day 105 / 120 / 135 (Sep 24, Oct 9, Oct 24)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Window end. Confirmed real (see Sep 9 SpaceX item for IPO verification). Independently recomputed day-count from the confirmed 2026-06-11 prospectus date: day 105 = Sep 24, day 120 = Oct 9, day 135 = Oct 24, 2026 \u2014 all match the original schedule exactly. Share count (328.4M, 7% of lockup shares, on each date) sourced from the original 424B4 read but not independently re-extracted from the full document today.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Three more SpaceX tranches unlock across September and October.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "name": "MOD earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Build & cooling", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "name": "Cerebras (CBRS) staged early lockup releases (Sep 30, Oct 14, Oct 28)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Window end. Confirmed real: Cerebras Systems Inc. filed a 424B4 prospectus dated May 13, 2026 (EDGAR CIK 2021728), IPO'd on Nasdaq Global Select Market as CBRS. Company has since reported Q1 (Jun 23, 2026) and Q2 2026 (mid-Aug 2026) earnings as a public company and issued Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $214-216M (Aug 12, 2026), confirming it is actively trading and reporting. The specific staged-release dates/share counts (~19.4M shares on each of Sep 30/Oct 14/Oct 28) come from the original 424B4 read; the lockup section of the document could not be re-extracted in full today (only a partial excerpt was retrievable), so treat exact figures as unverified-but-plausible.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026035214/cerebras-424b4.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Early Cerebras unlocks in three steps.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "name": "MSFT earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Hyperscalers", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "name": "GOOGL earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Hyperscalers", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "name": "META earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Hyperscalers", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "name": "GEV earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Power & generation", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "name": "AMZN earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Hyperscalers", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "name": "PWR earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Build & cooling", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "name": "EME earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Build & cooling", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "name": "Anthropic IPO window (reported \u00b7 no public S-1 yet)", "type": "ipo", "note": "REPORTED, tier 2 (Reuters 27 Aug: prospectus expected after Labor Day). No public S-1 on EDGAR as of 3 Sep 2026; last hard mark is the $965B Series H \u2014 ledger \u211644. Window end. Heavily reconfirmed by a large volume of fresh reporting through today (Sep 3, 2026): Reuters (Aug 27, 2026) reports Anthropic plans to publicly unveil its IPO prospectus 'after Labor Day' (Labor Day 2026 = Sep 7); Yahoo Finance", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": false, "blurb": "Press-reported listing window; no S-1 on file.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "name": "AMD earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Compute & memory", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "name": "ETN earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Build & cooling", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "name": "ANET earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "AI networking", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "name": "ALAB earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "AI networking", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "name": "TLN earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Power & generation", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "name": "COHR earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "AI networking", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "name": "VST earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Power & generation", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "name": "NRG earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Power & generation", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "name": "IREN earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Neoclouds", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-09", "name": "Cerebras (CBRS) main lockup expiry (~171M shares) \u2014 180-day outside date", "type": "ipo", "note": "Unchanged estimate. Cerebras' Q3 2026 earnings date has not been announced (only revenue guidance of $214-216M given Aug 12, 2026, per Benzinga); no report date found today to pin the 'earlier of Q3 earnings +2 days or 180 days' trigger more precisely. 180 days after the confirmed May 13, 2026 prospectus date is Nov 9, 2026, matching the original estimate.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026035214/cerebras-424b4.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Main Cerebras unlock, about 171M shares.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-09", "name": "CEG earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Power & generation", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "name": "US\u2013China reciprocal-tariff suspension expires (12:01am EST Nov 10, 2026)", "type": "policy", "note": "Original Federal Register document (2025-19826) could not be re-fetched directly today (site returned a bot-check page), but the underlying story is strongly corroborated as a live, unresolved issue: a Trump-Xi summit is reported for Sep 24, 2026, with US officials 'weighing new China tariffs' ahead of it (Aug 25 and Aug 30, 2026 coverage), consistent with an active truce set to lapse in November 2026 that both sides are negotiating over. This is a binary catalyst for China-exposed AI-supply-chain names (chips, rare earths, equipment) whether it lapses, extends, or is renegotiated at/after the Sep 24 summit.", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/11/07/2025-19826/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-consistent-with-the-economic-and-trade-arrangement-between-the", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Tariff truce lapses unless extended; hits chip supply chains.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "name": "NBIS earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Neoclouds", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "name": "CRWV earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Neoclouds", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "name": "FERC large-load show-cause: responses due for RTOs/ISOs granted 90-day abeyance", "type": "deadline", "note": "Estimate, unchanged. Corroborated that five of six grid operators sought the abeyance/delay track (Capacity Global, Aug 24, 2026), which per the Aug 17 response deadline + 90 days lands ~Nov 15, 2026, with reply comments ~Dec 15. No primary FERC order was found today specifying exact abeyance response dates per operator; PJM/MISO/SPP Section 205 large-load tariff filings are expected in this window (FERC docket RM26-4).", "url": "https://rmi.org/resources/understanding-fercs-large-load-orders/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Delayed grid-operator answers to FERC on large loads.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "name": "13F filing deadline (Q3 2026 holdings)", "type": "filing", "note": "Rule and calendar math independently re-verified: Form 13F is due within 45 days of quarter-end. Nov 14, 2026 (45 days after Sep 30) falls on a Saturday (confirmed by direct date computation), pushing the deadline to Monday, Nov 16, 2026. Watch hedge-fund positioning in AI-infra names.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Q3 institutional holdings become public.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "name": "NVDA earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Compute & memory", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "name": "COP31 UN Climate Change Conference (Nov 9-20, Antalya, T\u00fcrkiye)", "type": "event", "note": "NEW. Window end. Confirmed dates (Nov 9-20, 2026) and host (Antalya, T\u00fcrkiye, after T\u00fcrkiye's bid beat Australia/Adelaide) via multiple news sources found today. Relevant to AI-infrastructure markets because data-center electricity demand and AI-related emissions have become a recurring COP agenda item, and hyperscalers/utilities have used past COPs as a venue to announce nuclear/renewable power deals feeding data-center buildout.", "url": "https://cop31.org/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "UN climate talks; watch data-center energy commitments.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "name": "SpaceX lockup: Q3-earnings-linked tranche (up to 1.3B shares, 28%)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Window end (estimate), unchanged. Confirmed SpaceX's first public-company earnings release (Q2 2026) was Aug 4, 2026; no Q3 2026 report date has been announced yet as of today, so the 'November 2026' assumption for this earnings-linked tranche (2nd trading day after Q3 results) remains an estimate rather than a confirmed date.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Up to 1.3B SpaceX shares unlock after Q3 results.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "name": "CRDO earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "AI networking", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-12-02", "name": "PJM Reliability Backstop auction results announced", "type": "milestone", "note": "Reported target, unchanged. Same sourcing/status as the Oct 21 bid-window item: the backstop procurement (FERC Docket ER26-3380) is confirmed as a real, in-progress process, but no FERC order or PJM update pinning the exact Dec 2, 2026 results date was found today. Contingent on FERC acceptance of ER26-3380, which appears still pending.", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-backstop-capacity-auction-ferc-data-centers/826792/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "PJM publishes the emergency auction clearing results.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-12-04", "name": "AWS re:Invent 2026 (Nov 30-Dec 4, Las Vegas)", "type": "event", "note": "Window end. Reconfirmed directly from AWS's official re:Invent FAQ page fetched today: 'November 30 - December 4, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada,' spanning Caesars Forum, Caesars Palace, Encore, MGM Grand, The Venetian, and Wynn. No changes found.", "url": "https://aws.amazon.com/events/reinvent/faqs/", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "AWS's annual conference; Trainium and capacity news.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-12-08", "name": "SpaceX 180-day lockup expiry (day 180)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Confirmed via independent day-count recomputation: 180 days after the confirmed 2026-06-11 prospectus date is Dec 8, 2026, matching the original schedule exactly. Extended-lockup holders (other than Musk) follow in 2027 per separate tranches (see Mar 18, 2027 item).", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm", "horizon": "quarter", "verified": true, "blurb": "Standard 180-day SpaceX lockup ends.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-12-09", "name": "AVGO earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Compute & memory", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-12-10", "name": "ORCL earnings", "type": "earnings", "note": "Hyperscalers", "horizon": "quarter", "source": "auto" }, { "date": "2026-12-22", "name": "PJM 2029/2030 Base Residual Auction results (window Dec 9-15)", "type": "milestone", "note": "Upgraded/directly confirmed: pulled PJM's own live '29-30 BRA' auction-schedule workbook today (the official file behind pjm.com's RPM auction-info page). It shows, verbatim: Auction window opens Dec 9, 2026; window closes Dec 15, 2026; results posted Dec 22, 2026 \u2014 an exact match to the original item. This is the near-term auction PJM is actively administering (planning-parameter and MOPR milestones for it are already running through Sep-Nov 2026 per the same workbook).", "url": "https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/rpm-auction-schedule.xlsx", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Capacity prices for PJM's 2029/30 delivery year.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "name": "Meta Prometheus (New Albany, OH) 1 GW cluster online \u2014 2026 target", "type": "milestone", "note": "Window end, unchanged. Reconfirmed only the general target: Meta has publicly said it expects Prometheus, described as 'the world's first one-gigawatt data center,' to open in central Ohio in 2026 (Meta spokesperson quote via Yahoo, dated roughly Oct 2025). No specific month or 2026 progress update was found today.", "url": "https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/hyperscale/article/55310441/ownership-and-power-challenges-in-metas-hyperion-and-prometheus-data-centers", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Meta's Ohio training cluster targets 1 GW by year-end.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-01-09", "name": "CES 2027 (Jan 6-9, Las Vegas)", "type": "event", "note": "Window end. Reconfirmed directly from CTA's official CES 2027 page fetched today: 'January 6-9, 2027' in Las Vegas, NV. NVIDIA/AMD/Intel keynotes typically precede the show (Jan 4-5).", "url": "https://www.cta.tech/events/ces-2027/", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Consumer-tech show; AI PC and edge-inference launches.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-01-12", "name": "Texas 90th Legislature convenes (regular biennial session)", "type": "event", "note": "NEW. The Texas Constitution fixes the start of each regular legislative session as the 2nd Tuesday in January of odd-numbered years; independently computed, that is Jan 12, 2027. Directly relevant to AI-infrastructure/power markets: news coverage found today confirms state lawmakers have signaled data centers will face 'greater scrutiny' in the 2027 session, including possible loss of state tax exemptions and new water/power-use rules, as a follow-on to 2025's SB6 large-load curtailment law and the ongoing ERCOT Batch Zero process.", "url": "https://capitol.texas.gov/", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Texas lawmakers return; large-load rules on the agenda.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-01-13", "name": "Virginia General Assembly 2027 session convenes", "type": "event", "note": "NEW. Virginia's Constitution fixes the start of each annual General Assembly session as the 2nd Wednesday in January; independently computed, that is Jan 13, 2027. Relevant given Virginia's outsized share of US/PJM data-center load: news found today confirms an August 2026 State Corporation Commission order shifting more transmission-buildout costs onto data centers, and lawmakers 'reopening' the fight over a proposed data-center power-use levy, both likely to be legislated on in this session.", "url": "https://virginiageneralassembly.gov/", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Virginia session; data-center tax and siting bills.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-02-16", "name": "13F filing deadline (Q4 2026 holdings)", "type": "filing", "note": "Rule and calendar math independently re-verified: due within 45 days of Dec 31. Feb 14, 2027 is a Sunday and Feb 15, 2027 is confirmed (by direct computation) to be the 3rd Monday of February, i.e. the Presidents'/Washington's Birthday federal holiday \u2014 so the deadline falls to Tuesday, Feb 16, 2027.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Q4 institutional holdings become public.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-03-09", "name": "PJM 2027/2028 Third Incremental Auction results (window Feb 24-Mar 2)", "type": "milestone", "note": "Upgraded/directly confirmed: pulled PJM's own live '27-28 3rd IA' auction-schedule workbook today. It shows, verbatim: auction window opens Feb 24, 2027; closes Mar 2, 2027; results posted Mar 9, 2027 \u2014 an exact match. The same workbook confirms the 2027/28 2nd IA was cancelled and shows a full pre-auction milestone chain (MOPR, sell-offer-cap, planning-parameter dates) running Sep 2026-Feb 2027.", "url": "https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/rpm-auction-schedule.xlsx", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Incremental capacity auction for 2027/28.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-03-18", "name": "NVIDIA GTC 2027 (Mar 15-18, San Jose)", "type": "event", "note": "Window end. Reconfirmed directly from nvidia.com/gtc fetched today: 'NVIDIA GTC 2027 is scheduled for March 15-18 in San Jose' (McEnery Convention Center); registration not yet open. Rubin/Vera Rubin Ultra roadmap updates expected.", "url": "https://www.nvidia.com/gtc/", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "NVIDIA's keynote; Rubin-generation roadmap.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-03-18", "name": "SpaceX extended-lockup tranches: Q4-earnings-linked (351.9M, 20%) and day 280 (176.0M, 10%)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Window end. The fixed day-280 tranche is independently confirmed: 280 days after the confirmed 2026-06-11 prospectus date is Mar 18, 2027, exactly matching the original schedule. The Q4-2026-earnings-linked portion remains an estimate since SpaceX has not announced a Q4 2026 report date.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Two extended SpaceX tranches: 351.9M and 176.0M shares.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-03-31", "name": "Sightline 2027 pipeline outlook (expected)", "type": "event", "note": "Next read on announced-vs-energized slippage", "url": "https://www.sightlineclimate.com/research/data-center-outlook", "horizon": "structural", "blurb": "Annual outlook on the US data-center pipeline.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-04-09", "name": "ERCOT Batch Zero eligibility/T(D)SP package window closes (Jul 10, 2026-Apr 9, 2027)", "type": "deadline", "note": "Upgraded/directly confirmed: extracted the text of ERCOT's own Jul 29, 2026 Senate Business & Commerce panel deck today. It states verbatim that the 'T(D)SP package' milestone runs 'July 10, 2026 - April 9, 2027' and that 'Large Loads that fail to demonstrate eligibility will be disqualified from Batch Zero.' The same deck shows ~205 GW of large-load requests eligible for inclusion in Batch Zero (of a much larger pool of requests screened), a correction to the original note's '~114 GW' figure, which appears to reflect one sub-category rather than the total.", "url": "https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2026/07/29/ERCOT-Senate-July-29-Panel-1-Assessing-The-Grid.pdf", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "ERCOT closes the first batch of large-load studies.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-04-15", "name": "Google Cloud Next 2027 (Apr 13-15, Las Vegas)", "type": "event", "note": "Window end. Reconfirmed directly from the official Google Cloud Next FAQ fetched today: 'April 13-15, 2027' at Mandalay Bay Convention Center, Las Vegas. TPU roadmap / Gemini infra announcements expected.", "url": "https://www.googlecloudevents.com/next-vegas/faq", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Google Cloud's conference; TPU and capacity updates.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-05-17", "name": "13F filing deadline (Q1 2027 holdings)", "type": "filing", "note": "Rule and calendar math independently re-verified: due within 45 days of Mar 31. May 15, 2027 is confirmed (by direct computation) to be a Saturday, so the deadline falls to Monday, May 17, 2027.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Q1 2027 institutional holdings become public.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-05-25", "name": "PJM 2030/2031 Base Residual Auction results (window May 12-18) \u2014 return to normal schedule", "type": "milestone", "note": "Upgraded/directly confirmed: pulled PJM's own live '30-31 BRA' auction-schedule workbook today. It shows, verbatim: auction window opens May 12, 2027; closes May 18, 2027; results posted May 25, 2027 \u2014 an exact match, and also confirms the note's supporting detail exactly: 'Planned Generation' NOI deadline Dec 1, 2026, and 'Post Planning Parameters' Feb 1, 2027.", "url": "https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/rpm-auction-schedule.xlsx", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "PJM returns to its normal three-year-forward schedule.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-06-30", "name": "Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island Unit 1) targeted restart \u2014 mid-2027", "type": "milestone", "note": "NEW. Window-end placeholder for a 'mid-2027' target. Constellation Energy's restart of the former Three Mile Island Unit 1 (renamed Crane Clean Energy Center) to serve a Microsoft power-purchase agreement is confirmed still on track per news found today, citing a 500,000-lb transformer delivered on site in August 2026 as 'a key step' toward restart, with the project described as targeting 'the middle of next year.' No specific month has been confirmed; a nuclear restart of this kind (first-of-a-kind in the US) carries meaningful schedule risk.", "url": "https://www.constellationenergy.com/newsroom/2024/Constellation-to-Launch-Crane-Clean-Energy-Center-Restoring-Jobs-and-Carbon-Free-Power-to-the-Grid.html", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "Microsoft-contracted reactor targets a mid-2027 restart.", "source": "hand" }, { "date": "2027-12-31", "name": "OpenAI IPO \u2014 'public company in 2027' (window extends beyond this calendar)", "type": "ipo", "note": "Window end is 2027-12-31, beyond the nominal mid-2027 horizon; retained and strengthened. Reconfirmed via CNBC (~Aug 20, 2026): CFO Sarah Friar told employees OpenAI 'will be a public company in 2027' or sooner; further Aug 2026 coverage (24/7 Wall St., Free Press Journal) has Friar saying OpenAI is 'running its own race' independent of Anthropic's timeline, after earlier (Jun 2026) reports OpenAI was weighing a delay to 2027 following SpaceX's volatile trading debut. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s; Anthropic is widely expected to list first (Fall 2026 target, see separate item).", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/open-ai-ipo-timing-2027-friar.html", "horizon": "structural", "verified": true, "blurb": "OpenAI says it plans to be public in 2027.", "source": "hand" } ] }